Can Joni Ernst win in Iowa?

You’d think Iowa would be tired of politics by now.

In most recent presidential elections, Iowa has been considered a battleground state as well as the epicenter of straw polling, making it a must-stop for every major candidate.

And with every major candidate comes other luminaries–former candidates, Senators, Congressmen, Governors, and political influencers who are there to stump for their guy and gal.

Iowa has a Senate seat in play this year, with Sen. Tom Harkin (D) retiring after four decades in office, the first time the seat has become unoccupied since Watergate.

The election pits Bruce Braley, a Democratic Congressman, against Joni Ernst, a Republican State Senator.

The polling has been tight in recent months, with the seat varying from D+4 to R+9 in recent months, but hovering around Tied on at least 5 occasions.

Both candidates have canvassed across Iowa’s 99 counties, both candidates have debated, and both candidates have released controversial, election-year-stealing, farm-themed ads, with Braley portraying his opponent as a baby chick and Ernst talking about castrating hogs as a younger woman.

With the election just a week away, Ernst is tentatively in the lead by 3 points, so while Iowa may seem too close to call, it ever-so-slightly leans pink.

If elected, Joni Ernst would become the 5th sitting female Republican senator.

Spoiler alert: here’s what happens in the 2016 election


Hillary does the opposite of before where she jumped in early and hangs back, says a bunch of BS about “being a new grandmother” and such.

Biden, Martin O’Malley, and and Jim Webb try to get a head start on the campaign, and they all smack the s**t out of each other over the course of months while Hillary hangs back and laughs.

Cuomo promises to stay out because Hillary promises him a Vice-Presidency (until she pulls the rug out from under him and sticks Julian Castro in instead–besides, what could Cuomo do to hurt Hillary when he outlives his usefulness?)

So you have this historical Clinton/Castro ticket which runs up against the Republicans…


Reps are feeling good after taking back the Senate (barely) in 2014. Establishment consultants take the credit and wait and see. Huckabee jumps into the race early, claims “the Lord told me to save this nation” or some BS like that.

Bachmann enters the race and of course is hindered by having no political or marketing skill whatsoever but exceptional conviction and an insane work ethic.

Peter King enters as well, but he’s bats**t and couldn’t be more unlikable, playing the Newt Gingrich of the race and laying it on thick at odd intervals.

Speaking of Newt, he takes the position of “kingmaker” and negotiates a deal for something, ANYTHING, even expressing interest in being a cabinet secretary for a new department of his own design (he proposes elimination of DHS and DOE and replacement with DOI–Department of Innovation) in a new administration.

Chris Christie keeps people waiting and expresses consistent interest, takes many public swipes at Huckabee and it’s a fight of the ex-fatties. He smells blood, and enters, and fizzles.

Ben Carson remains statesman-like but secretly just wants to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Perry jumps in late, instead of his early entry and popcorn fart exit from last time, and this time he’s Rick Perrier than ever–gliding between campaign stops in his all-black wardrobe like a ghost of candidate-past, promising “Real Talk”, pushing immigration reform or criticizing Republican Senate efforts on it (he’ll take whatever position is most expedient, honey badger don’t care) and he gets a lot of serious consideration.

But overall, nobody has done much of anything thus far and it’s embarrassing–which is further compounded when Santorum makes his candidacy known, which literally nobody could give a lesser s**t about. He and Huckabee also fight mercilessly.

Huntsman threatens third party, even coming up with a running mate for a bi-party ticket–Maggie Hassan, Dem Governor of NH. So now you’ve got a complete mess of a campaign and no winners.

Jeb Bush thinks it’s his moment now, but is hammered and becomes the modern-Perry–much ballyhooed, big failure, and family scandal becomes an endless timesuck.

John Bolton stays loud–too loud, and in this election, enemies become friends, with him picking up the phone and contacting Condi Rice, who would rather be left out of everything altogether. Both approach a Romney campaign and offer themselves as SoState (Bolton) and VP (Condi)–but Romney keeps his distance for the moment.

Jindal makes VP noises, and then you have Rand Paul and Ted Cruz in a game of who’s on first.

I’d make the audacious bet that there’s a huge likelihood neither run and disappoint the s**t out of everyone, but the longer the campaign goes with no solution the more likely one would jump in, even considering a P/VP situation with Cruz at the top that would be an automatic win. but if they both stay out, then Romney slides in beautifully and wins an election against a haggard, beat-up, old-looking and backwards-policy Hillary with an unknown VP and a fresh-faced Romney/Condi ticket–a mirror of 08–under the following campaign of:

1) I was right (about Putin, Iraq, Syria, everything else)

2) Illegal immigration hurts minorities

3) This is what happens on Day One of my administration (list of 10-12 major principles that are consistently repeated and messaged)


Obama is like LBJ or GWB in this election–everyone would appreciate his endorsement, but could you stand over there please? As far away as possible? Thanks.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg steps down on the Supreme Court after Dems lose the 2014 election–Obama won’t be able to get another nominee in there before the end of his term.

Barbara Boxer, who couldn’t stand the thought of stepping down from her seat despite her age, wants to be appointed to replace her good friend Ginsburg on the Court, which would shock the political classes since no non-lawyer has been appointed to the Court in 75 years–not since Robert H. Jackson in 1941.

However, Obama appoints another Californian–Kamala Harris, giving the Supreme Court its youngest member, its first female African-American member, and even more of a minority to replace Ginsburg.

A defeated Barbara Boxer is begged to run for just one more term by her fellow Senator, Dianne Feinstein, who is now 83 years old, the oldest member of the Senate, and ready to retire herself. Boxer agrees to one more term and has already chosen her replacement–up-and-comer Joaquin Castro.

By 2018, Dianne Feinstein is 86 years old and simply finished. She only steps down on one condition–a very specific individual replaces her.

That individual is Michelle Obama.

Michelle Obama has ruled out running for Senate in Illinois, but hey, how about Hawaii? Michelle eyes the seat in 2020, which would be a sure win against an unknown like Schatz. But that’s too far away.

The Obamas have made the choice to abandon Chicago for good after a brief stint in the city, and while they have the Hawaii vacation house, their disdain for Washington is clear.

They set up shop in Los Angeles, putting the Secret Service on edge, who compromise with them on a Palm Springs area residence that is high-security, functioning as a safe city escape, a “Camp David” of sorts that’s close to the golf course. Another residence is maintained in the Bel Air area for their infrequent trips into town and more-frequent trips as the 2018 election nears. At some times, they stay in separate residences–Sasha is already in college (and considers a West Coast private school like Loyola to stay close to her parents) and Malia is ready to graduate high school, so the Obamas are getting ready for empty-nester life.  Former-President Obama writes his memoirs, helps his Organizing for Action continue to fundraise for candidates, and jockeys for a Supreme Court nomination further down the decade under a Dem admin a la Taft.

California Democrats, embarrassed at the lack of up and coming leaders not named Joaquin Castro, leap at the opportunity for a Senator Michelle, with celebrities beating the crap out of each other to campaign for her.  She wins handily thanks to O4A, as California is one of the last states that, outside of the traffic they cause, is still in love with the Obamas.

Fiengold downplays DC popularity in new ad

In a slick new commercial, Russ Fiengold claims that his independent stances haven’t made him friends in Washington:

From HotAir titles this “Fun: Liberal Democratic hero suddenly a man with no known political affiliation”, pointing out the following distortion in the ad:

The scene of him eating alone is cute and shrewd as a way of distancing himself from the Democratic cancer, but is it really true that he’s lost friends for opposing automatic pay raises for Congress? That seems to me like one of the cheapest and easiest gestures on ethics a politican could make. And the numbers bear me out: Apparently, the Senate passed Feingold’s bill unanimously without a roll call vote and then the House rubber-stamped it, 402-15. Who’s not sitting with Russ in the cafeteria because he dared to propose such a populist no-brainer?

Ousted in Primaries = Write In campaign

Neil Cavuto introduced a segment on Fox News with a colorfully choiced clip to introduce his interview with Alaska Republican Senate Nominee Joe Miller. Viewers might have thought they were watching a commercial, but it was actually a cold-open to the Fox News show Your World with Neil Cavuto. Watch:

HotAir on the possibility of Castle starting a write-in campaign:

Castle’s team won’t confirm that they’re polling, but why wouldn’t they do it? Surely his name recognition’s high enough in the state that they’d want to know if he has a shot to win. Here’s the irony: If you think O’Donnell’s numbers against Coons are already so grim that she stands no real chance of winning — and most O’D supporters do not think that — then it’s a no-brainer that you should want Castle in the race. Worst-case scenario is that he and O’Donnell split Republicans and Coons manages to hold onto enough Democrats to squeak to victory, but then a Coons victory is how things look at the moment anyway. Bad-case scenario is that Castle manages to pull enough Dems from Coons and Republicans from O’Donnell to win the seat himself, in which case the GOP is a step closer to a Senate majority. Best-case scenario, obviously, is that Castle and Coons split the Dems and O’Donnell squeaks through on the strength of conservative supporter. If, however, you think O’D can still beat Coons head-to-head — and especially if you’re a DeMint-ian “true conservative” who regards centrist Republicans as even worse for conservatism than Democratic victories — then you should probably want Castle to stay out. “Anyone but the RINO,” no?

Another grand irony here? Castle’s hard feelings towards O’Donnell and the base may be so hard that if he polls this and the numbers show that he’ll hurt Coons more than he’ll hurt her, maybe he’ll decide not to run just to spite her. RINO revenge?

Crist up in FL Senate polls

bad news for Republicans.

Assuming Meek wins his primary and is in the race, Crist leads Rubio with 41 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 30 percent, with 12 percent going to Meek, according to the poll of 590 likely voters surveyed from July 24 to July 28. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Assuming Greene wins the Democratic primary, however, changes things.

In that case, Crist gets 37 percent to Rubio’s 29 percent, and Greene gets 16 percent, poll results show.

The Florida Poll was conducted by New York Times-owned Florida newspapers, including The Ledger, and the University of South Florida Polytechnic in Lakeland.

Democrats to bail on Meek?

As Kendrick Meek consistently comes in third in the three-man race in polling, key Democratic strategists have begun to give up on Meek:

Top Democratic strategists are abandoning their party’s frontrunner in the Florida Senate race in favor of Independent Charlie Crist, who bolted the Republican party over the state party’s rightward lurch toward the Tea Party.

SKDKnickerbocker, a leading Democratic political strategy and communications firm, has agreed to work on Crist’s up-hill campaign as an independent for the U.S. Senate.

Ed Morrisey from HotAir explains why this analysis is exactly wrong:

First, the party didn’t “lurch to the right.” Crist lurched towards Barack Obama when the President was popular, backing Obama’s profligate spending agenda. Second, the party continued to back Crist, with the NRSC issuing its endorsement of Crist as soon as he entered the race and keeping their support in place until the moment Crist abandoned the GOP. Crist lost the voters, which is an entirely different thing than the party.

Palin endorses Fiorina

Sarah Palin has endorsed Carly Fiorina for Califonria senate, which has made some conservatives angry that she looked over primary candidate Chuck Devore whom they regard as more conserbvative. However as one commenter puts it: “Would you all prefer Sarah endorse Devore and watch him lose by 20 pts?”.

Someone with the username IheartSarah on the Conservatives4Palin blog had the following reaction:

This is my feeling about the whole thing. The primary is a month away and Devore is only polling at 13%. If he were within striking distance to actually pull off the upset, then Sarah would have either stayed out of it or endorsed him. However, he is not within striking distance. But Carly is within striking distance of Campbell, who, from everything I am hearing and reading is a really poor choice. Sarah’s endorsement could put Carly over the top to beat Campbell and she would have a much better chance at beating Boxer, nobody can argue with that. If Sarah had stayed out of it, Campbell had a pretty good chance of winning and he is definitely not acceptable. So, I believe she had to get involved.

I also trust Sarah’s instincts. From what I have seen, she is carefully weighing each endorsement she is making and does not take the responsibility she has lightly. She may not endorse the person I would like for her to endorse, but that is okay. I know she knows what she is doing. She has my full support in 2012, no matter who she endorses in 2010. She has the bigger picture in mind, whereas I might be looking at the smaller picture. This is a fight for our country, but the same way that Progressives have taken almost 100 years to reach the point they are at now, we are not going to be able to win back the soul of our country in one or two elections, we have to be willing to be in this for the long haul. While I believe these next two election cycles are very important in putting a stop to Progressives, I do not believe they are enough to turn the country around, it will be a much longer battle because it is not only a battle for the heart of soul of America but for the minds of its citizens. We have just begun this fight and I believe Sarah is looking at the battles that are winnable for now and the future.