writes at FrumForum.com that a quick glance at the 2012 GOP contenders reveals that the overwhelming majority of these candidates would have no chance of defeating an incumbent president, much less the Obama campaign machine, in a general election.
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Newt Gingrich: Gingrich is too old, too polarizing, and too Washington to have a fighting chance at winning the presidency.
Sarah Palin: 55% of Americans view her unfavorably. That’s pretty much game over, but even if it wasn’t, the fact that the number holds among independents (55% of them view her unfavorably and 40% of that group said they view her in a “strongly unfavorable” light) also would be a knockout. 41% of all polled view her as strongly unfavorable. In short, that means she can write off 40% of the electorate before the race even starts. Her chances of beating Barack Obama are slim.
Mitt Romney: Deemed the “frontrunner” by many, Romney would get destroyed in a general election. Flip-flop. Flip-flop. Flip-flop. The label destroyed John Kerry, and Romney’s propensity to change his mind makes Kerry’s switches look tame to the point of irrelevance. And did I mention that Obamacare looks like Romneycare on steroids? No chance.
Mike Huckabee: Christians heart Huckabee. Independents do not. Next.
Gary Johnson: Who is Gary Johnson?
Rick Santorum: Staunch social conservatives need not apply for the presidency. Santorum tried to mandate the teaching of intelligent design nationwide in 2001. Not a single Latino in America is going to vote for this guy. Neither are independents, moderate Democrats or a lot of moderate Republicans. If he is lucky and Obama does a lot of things very, very wrong between now and 2012, Santorum might… just might lose 65-35 to Obama.
Ron Paul: The man is a fringe lunatic. The answer is no.
Mike Pence: Who is Mike Pence?
Tim Pawlenty: The only candidate of the batch that I am not 100% confident would get absolutely mauled by Barack Obama in 2012. A smart, competent, seemingly likeable candidate. Relatively moderate. But he is from Minnesota and not really popular there anymore. In March, a poll of 500 Minnesotans pegged his approval at 42%. If his own voters don’t like him, it will be hard for him to beat an incumbent in a general election for the presidency.
And if you think this is meaningless because the Republican savior just hasn’t shown themselves yet, think again…
The GOP’s star is not coming. Obama became a superstar at the Democratic Convention in 2004 and by 2006 (two years before the election….), every single person that followed politics knew who Barack Obama was. We have neither a Hillary Clinton (a powerhouse presumed nominee) or a rising star who captured the nation’s attention. Paul Ryan is a darling amongst conservatives but about ten mainstream Americans have ever heard of him. Jindal was supposed to be the rising star, but he blew his “national unveiling” with an awkward response to Obama’s State of the Union.
But FrumForum commenter MaxTwain puts this analysis into context with a historical record of GOP candidates:
Let’s review the GOP fields from the past few elections. I think after you see where we’ve been and what we had running in the past you will realize just how much better the 2012 field can be.
1996: Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes, Phil Gramm, Richard Lugar, Robert Dornan, Pete Wilson, Arlen Specter, Alan Keyes
2000: George W. Bush, John McCain, Steve Forbes, Orrin Hatch, Gary Bauer, Alan Keyes, Lamar Alexander, Dan Quayle, Elizabeth Dole
2008: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Ton Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore
2012: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mike Pence, George Pataki, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Gary Johnson
If you look at our primaries in the recent past you begin to realize our field is deeper then in the past. In fact, without George W. Bush in 2000, you could argue 2012 will have the best potential field of candidates. Sure, no one is the next Reagan, and no one will have the media drooling quite like Obama did, but we have a solid list of credible candidates, far more credible then Dole or McCain were when they got the nomination.
I think the problem you are having is that for decades the GOP nomination has been a orderly process, and now, just as in 2008, we are starting to have primary campaigns that are more like Democrats, where the next in line might not be the next in line, and where someone new could emerge from the pack and upset the established order just as Carter and Obama did.
For some reason, the poll speculates about Palin running under a 3rd party:
Just 21% of voters nationwide say Palin should run as an independent if she loses the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. Sixty-three percent (63%) say the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee should not run as an independent. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided…
When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin…
In a three-way race, Palin hurts Romney by drawing 28% Republican support. Romney captures 52% of the GOP vote in that scenario.
A McCain-Romney ticket makes political sense for the GOP.
John McCain and Mitt Romney fought bitterly as presidential candidates and don’t seem to like each other very much.
But, to quote Vice President Dick Cheney in his recent interview with ABC’s Martha Raddatz: “So?”
A presidential nominee doesn’t need another best friend. He needs a ticket-balancer – and from the ridiculous to the sublime, his ex-rival fits the bill.
Romney has hair; McCain has much less; Romney is robotic; McCain is temperamental. Romney shifts positions with enthusiasm; McCain does it without any. Romney is a very wealthy man who invested $45 million of his own money in his presidential campaign; McCain is rich, but not that rich. He took out a $3 million line of credit to subsidize his campaign.
But seriously – and I mean it – Romney offers much to McCain’s presidential bid.
So says Joan Vennochi in the Boston Globe.
Among his assets to the ticket:
ENERGY: Romney is 61 – A decade younger than McCain. He’s a tireless campaigner, a good speaker, and strong debater. He dominated several of the showdowns between Republican contenders, and won their last debate in California.
CONSERVATIVES: Conservatives love him, they trust him more than McCain to be right wing on taxes and having Romney as veep would “put conservative pundits and talk show hosts behind it, with passion instead of resignation.”
STATE GRAB: Even if Massachusetts is more than a long shot, Romney might help McCain snatch New Hampshire from the Democrats. Romney could also be helpful in Michigan, the state where he was born and beat McCain; and in Nevada, which has a large Mormon population
Polls now show words from both camps are causing serious damage. An increasing number of Clinton supporters say they would not vote for Obama in November and vice versa.
According to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania voters, only 53 percent of Clinton backers say they’ll vote for Obama should he become the nominee. Nineteen percent say they’ll vote for McCain and 13 percent say they won’t vote, the poll found.
The poll said that 60 percent of Obama backers said they would go for Clinton should she win the nomination, with 20 percent opting for McCain, and 3 percent saying they wouldn’t vote at all.
That’s what ABC News found in talking to voters on the street.
“I think I’d have to vote for McCain,” Laura Courson, New York woman who supports Clinton told ABC News, when asked what she would do if her candidate were not the Democrats’ nominee.
“I’d have a hard time voting for Hillary Clinton in this election … I might go for a third party candidate,” said Kevin Mills, a Los Angeles man who supports Obama.
The early months of the campaign were reasonably cordial. But as the race has gone on and on, it has also grown nastier.
Mitt Romney: By now, Romney needs no introduction. On paper, he is absolutely top-notch. His resume is a wonder to behold. His competence is readily apparent to any voter. And most Reaganite conservatives seem to accept him, even if some aren’t enthusiastic about him, yet he does not have a hard edge that turns off independents. He’s a palpably decent man with a wonderful family. On the other hand, he had every advantage this primary season, and just couldn’t make it work. He never quite seems to “connect” with a majority of voters. Plus, McCain seems to have developed a personal dislike for him, and McCain is not good at hiding such sentiments. Voters would pick up on that, and it would be awkward.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty: Right now the betting favorite, Pawlenty seems to be an ideal choice. Minnesota is an incredibly important target for Republicans, as it keeps creeping ever closer to voting for a GOP presidential candidate, and as the upper Midwest as a whole (including Iowa and Wisconsin) is probably the largest contiguous swath of 50-50 battleground states in the country. Popular with Evangelicals and by most (but not all) lights a solid fiscal conservative as well, Pawlenty seems able to keep conservatives happy while presenting a friendly persona. On the downside, though, he won both of his races for governor with less than 50 percent of the vote; he has no significant experience outside of politics, and there is something about him on TV that seems a bit too lightweight.
Former House Budget Committee Chairman John Kasich: There is no doubt that Kasich has an appealing and approachable personality, and political skills aplenty. He represented Ohio for eight terms in the House — and of course, Ohio has been a linchpin for Republican victories for years, but now has turned into a seriously uphill battle for the GOP. Any local boy who can help keep that state in the Republican column would be worth his weight in platinum — plus, Kasich adds working-class Pennsylvania roots as well. A true fiscal conservative, Kasich received many plaudits for his part in helping balance the federal budget for the first time in more than three decades. On the down side, he often seemed too eager to grab the credit when the more difficult legislative grunt work was done by the Appropriations Committee and the Ways & Means Committee rather than by Kasich’s Budgeteers. He also lacks significant non-political experience, and he can come across as a bit hyperactive, which might exacerbate rather than modulate McCain’s intensity.
Rob Portman: His twelve years as a highly regarded U.S. House Member from Ohio preceded service as President George W. Bush’s Trade Representative and then as his Budget Director. Everywhere he goes, he seems to impress people with his intelligence, his earnestness, and his bearing. He immediately gives forth an air of (that overused word) gravitas, and he seems to be liked and respected by people across the entire ideological spectrum. Then again, he might be too perfect, too preppy, too deeply connected to the Bush family that has always been his biggest political booster from the time he served as associate White House counsel under the elder Bush. But is he a true Reaganite? It’s not 100 percent clear. Most people seem to think so, and he certainly would come across as a classy addition to anybody’s ticket.
Chris Cox: The best choice, bar none. This thoughtful and reform-minded chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission made his name for 16 years as the brainiest and perhaps most principled Reaganite conservative in Congress, as well as one of the best on TV. In a brilliant column two weeks ago at this site, Lisa Fabrizio laid out the full argument in Cox’s favor. Other columnists have also written that he would make a good Veep choice, among them Lisa Schiffren of National Review Online, Jack Kelly of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics, and the reviewer for Exurbanleague.com, which is the top-ranked conservative blog in McCain’s home state of Arizona. Ditto for an article yesterday in the Financial Times and a column yesterday by John Gizzi of Human Events.
Cox is well thought of by just about every conservative columnist around, and respected by the David Broder institutionalists for his brains, diligence, and decency. He could probably help at least a little in Minnesota, where he grew up, and of course he is a favorite of the Californians he represented in Congress. Of great significance, perhaps, McCain himself was asked two Fridays ago at a bloggers’ briefing which states he thought he might be able to move from the Democratic to the Republican column, and his first answer, the one he focused most on, was California. And McCain is sure to appreciate Cox’s grit in coming back from a horrendous off-road vehicle accident three decades ago that left him partially paralyzed for a while.
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