Survey of 500 Texas voters was conducted January 24-27, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 43% Republican; 32% Democrat; 25% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 25% Very conservative; 22% Somewhat conservative; 15%Somewhat liberal; 8% Very liberal.
Barring some dramatic change in the final ten days or so, Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election.
In the 22 national head-to-head polls with Romney conducted in the month of October, Obama has hit 50 percent once, 49 percent four times, 48 percent three times, 47 percent eight times, 46 percent once, and 45 percent five times. (He hasn’t hit 48 percent in a national poll since October 20.) Mind you, in most of these polls Obama has trailed narrowly, with Romney at 48 to 50 percent, and in a few, he’s led Romney, with the GOP challenger at 45 percent or so. But the polling this month points to a strikingly consistent percentage of support for an incumbent president.
Not only is Obama’s percentage in the RealClearPolitics average 47 percent, he’s at 47 percent in four tracking polls: Rasmussen, ABC News/Washington Post, Gallup, and IBD/TIPP. It is not merely significant that Obama is likely at 47 percent at this moment, it’s that he’s been around 47 percent for most of the month — with debates, new attack-ad barrages on both sides, etc. He’s around 47 percent in polls with many remaining undecideds and few remaining undecideds.
We can debate whether those remaining undecideds, ranging from 3 to 8 percent in most of these polls, will break heavily for the challenger. In 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry split the remaining undecideds roughly evenly. But the one scenario that political scientists deem virtually impossible is one where undecideds who have declined to support the incumbent all year suddenly break heavily in favor of him. For most of the remaining undecideds, the choice is between voting for the challenger and staying home.
To say the debate encountered “some” technical difficulties would be like saying that Apple has sold “some” iPhones. Johnson kept disappearing from the Hangout like a Muggle at Hogwarts who has yet to figure out which end of his wand is the one that makes stuff vanish. If ever there was a case to be made for blanketing the nation in high speed internet, Gary Johnson made it last night.
Jill Stein promptly became confused by the function of the mute button, and whilst it was obvious that she is passionate about her positions, it was obvious in a 1920’s silent film way. If she doesn’t win the presidency, Stein can always give Verizon a call and see if they need a new “Can you hear me now” person in their ads.
America is the land of free speech, and this reporter for one applauds the embracing of the “Virtual” concept, as well as the sheer grit and determination of candidates willing to run against tremendous odds for what they believe in. Johnson and Stein gave the voices of the people they represent a chance to be heard in this election season. For that alone they deserve credit.
Steve Martin sits at a table and explains how to make a wad of paper with the necessary supplies of: paperclips, scissors, a stapler, chewing gum, a hammer — and proceeds to conduct an elaborate demonstration of folding and mutilating a piece of paper while the political message is made via signs being held endorsing Bob Kerry.
Michele Bachmann (hisses, boos, and screams from the crowd) decided to visit a Chicago synagogue for a Yom Kippur service last week.
For a fundraiser? No.
To give a speech? No.
To collect donations? No.
To quietly attend a Yom Kippur service?
HOW DARE SHE.
The mere appearance of this intimidating, middle-aged, 5’2” woman was unfathomable, “infuriating some congregants”.
She was so terrifying, in fact, that “some walked out of the service, and one man, Gary Sircus, launched a local campaign to support Bachmann’s opponent Jim Graves, who had a 400 percent uptick in donations from the Chicago area last week.”
Who is this man, and what did this monstrous mother of twenty-six do to him?
According to his Twitter, “Math Teacher and Northwestern Univ. Professor (School of Education) — reformed lawyer; husband and father of two; loves politics, killer sudoku and my family”. He also is apparently quite the Democrat activist, attending a Lawyers for Obama event in Chicago that the President attended.
And how does he characterize the arrival of this…this…”Conservative Evangelical Christian Congresswoman Michele Bachmann” (in one of the most redundant and overly-capitalized introductions of all-time)?
“Michele Bachman’s at Anshe Emet for Kol Nidre. In honor of this unholy person being in my synagogue, I’ve made a contribution to Jim Graves”
Ahh yes. A Democrat fundraiser/activist and Northwestern University professor (never mentioned in the article) on the holiest day in the Jewish calendar, a day for forgiveness, says:
“The holiness of the room and the holiness of the evening was greatly diminished for me, if not completely destroyed…Our congregation values and embodies tolerance, compassion, respect for individual rights, intelligence, science — all of the things that I think Michele Bachmann stands against.”
Of course! No better way to celebrate a day for forgiveness than to get up, leave, and give spiteful interviews because of prejudice against a fellow worshipper.
After all, donating money to her opponent and then making a huge fuss about it is the “best way to honor [her] visit”.
How did they even know she was there, anyway? Did she go on stage, gladhand in the aisles, pose for photo ops?
“Rabbi Michael Siegel publicly greeted Bachmann, in accordance with a common synagogue practice of greeting public officials in the audience.
‘I am aware of the fact that our congregation’s policy in regards to public officials clearly caused pain to some members of our community on the most precious day of reconciliation on the Jewish calendar,’ Siegel told the Tribune. ‘That we regret deeply.’
Perhaps Professor/Obama fundraiser Gary “Barnum and Bailey” Sircus was just miffed that he didn’t get introduced.
Making the conservative anti-gay politician’s appearance even more awkward, the service ‘featured a fictional father and son dialogue about Israel, including a piece celebrating Israel’s openness to the gay and lesbian community.’
Which obviously caused clearly-intolerant Michele Bachmann to up and leave.
Or no, wait…she stayed through the service while Gary (and others not named) up and left, because that’s what tolerance and forgiveness are all about.