Why Bush’s 04 Strategy won’t work for Obama

In response to the reports that the Obama administration will be looking to George W Bush’s 2004 re-election strategy, one columnist gives caution. Bush-Cheney ’04 may have scraped through a victory, but the same tactics won’t work for Obama. John Avlon gives five reasons 2012 is different but they rest on the following premise:

The balancing act in politics is inspiring the base without alienating the center of the electorate. Ultimately elections in America are won by the candidate who connects with moderates and the middle class. Thirteen months out, it is clear that President Obama has an uphill climb toward reelection ahead of him. His greatest asset is the weakness of the Republican field and his still-high personal approval ratings. But everything from job approval numbers to the unemployment rate to the consumer price index bodes badly for the president. If he wins reelection, it will be a much narrower victory than he enjoyed in 2008. Swing states like Indiana and North Carolina are unlikely to come back into his fold. He won independent voters by 8 percent last election but now his independent approval rating is underwater at 37 percent, with Mitt Romney carrying a 55 percent approval among independents in a head-to-head contrast.

Reaching for the last presidential reelect playbook smacks of a lack of imagination by Team Obama. Yes, the president needs to reignite support of his progressive base, which has suffered because of unrealistic expectations that collided with an enduringly bad global economy. But while playing to the base might feel good to Democratic Party consultants, a look at the national numbers shows that it threatens to take a long-shot and make it worse, guaranteeing a razor thin reelect at best by focusing on the base at the expense of independents and the center.

Romney loses cool under repeated Perry interruptions

Dubbed the worst moment of the debate:

Lets be clear here, Perry was out of line from the beginning. Perry supporters can take heart in the fact that he stayed awake for nearly half the debate, only lapsing into incoherency towards the end of the debate. Unfortunately, most of the time in this debate, while he wasn’t asleep, he looked anything but presidential. Shouting matches and downright rudeness characterized Perry’s performance. It looked anything but Presidential.

However, Romney’s response didn’t help. On one hand, he dispelled SNL Romney’s statement, “I”m incapable of rage,” with a response that included getting into Rick Perry’s personal space and putting his hand on Perry’s shoulder in a very agressive away.

For many Republican voters, the gumption of Romney might be appreciated except it was accompanied by whining about the debate rules and appealing to the moderator by name. “Anderson!” in a tone not too dissimilar from a child crying, “Mom, make him stop!”

Many folks at home saw what Sarah Palin saw. Her kids were fussing at each other during the debate and she had moments when she could tell the debate from her kids fighting each other and couldn’t tell which would make the most sense.

Much of the after-debate was about who won the debate. On the fine points of a college debating judge, the case can always be made for Newt Gingrich, with a nod to Michele Bachmann doing nicely. In reality, debates are about moments. When we look back at recent presidential debates, we don’t remember the debates on points, what stands out are those moments.

Thank Carter and Calendars for the long campaign seasons

The Wall Street Journal answers How the campaign season got so long.

American history is replete with examples of lengthy campaigns and multiyear chess games. Thomas Jefferson conducted a quiet effort against John Adams for the four years he was vice president to Adams, having lost a close Electoral College battle to him in 1796. Andrew Jackson never stopped running for president after he believed he was robbed of the office in 1824 by John Quincy Adams. Both these long-distance runners were rewarded with the White House.

What is novel, though, is the growing length of the overt public campaign for party nominations. For that we can largely thank Jimmy Carter.

Before 1976, extensive private preparations notwithstanding, candidates almost always waited until the actual calendar year of the election before announcing their candidacy. Mr. Carter changed that when he practically became a resident of Iowa, site of the country’s first nominating contest, shortly after he left office as governor of Georgia in 1975. His successful strategy became the new norm, copied by candidates in both parties since.

There’s also the nominating calendar:

From 1920 until 1972, the New Hampshire primary led off the presidential selection process on the second Tuesday in March. This helped to limit primary season to less than four months, until early June.

Then the great rush to the front of the primary pack began, fueled by states’ desires to get the money, media and electoral influence that come with early voting. In 1972, Florida tried to grab New Hampshire’s franchise, setting its primary for the same mid-March day as the Granite State’s. New Hampshire promptly moved up to March 7.

The leapfrogging has continued since and accelerated recently. In 1968, only New Hampshire held a March primary. By 1988 there were 20 March primaries. Inevitably, competition among states moved some of the March primaries into February, with a blizzard of 22 in February 2008.

SE Cupp and Jay Mohr on the 2012 GOP Candidates

Actor and comedian Jay Mohr was on Imus in the Morning and talked about the 2012 presidential campaign and candidates, saying he likes Jon Huntsman “because he’s hot”.

Author S.E. Cupp was also on the show and commented on the 2012 presidential election now that Chris Christie and Sarah Palin have chosen not to run, saying it’s going to be weird for Conservatives to pretend that they actually like Mitt Romney.

Philip Klein’s false Romneycare claims echo Obama’s

Philip Klein, senior editorial writer for The Washington Examiner, wrote a piece titled, Romney’s false health care claims echo Obama’s. Klein attacks a few sound bites Mitt Romney gave at the recent Fox/Google debate while trying to explain his 2006 MA health care bill. Unfortunately, Klein ignores the larger context of what Romney is saying, which Romney amply provides in his book, No Apology.

In his effort to make Romneycare and Obamacare seem alike, Klein doesn’t deny the differences between them. Moreover, he doesn’t even mention the differences. Romney didn’t cut Medicare/Medicaid, didn’t impose insurance price controls and didn’t do a host of other things Obama did in his 2,700 page bill. Romney’s bill is only 72 pages.

And as Marco Rubio pointed out in an interview for National Review during his 2010 campaign in which he obtained Romney’s endorsement, Romney’s plan didn’t raise taxes or add to the deficit, and is a state rather than federal plan.

“It’s a work in progress,” Rubio says, speaking of the Bay State program. “There are major distinctions between that and what Obama is trying to do in Washington. For one, it didn’t raise any taxes. Number two, it is not adding to our deficit. That is my biggest objection to Obamacare, although there are many others. My number-one objection to Obamacare is that we can’t afford it, even if it was the greatest idea in the world.”

“Florida and Massachusetts are very different places,” Rubio continues. “All I would say to you is that states were designed to be laboratories for creative thoughts and ideas. That’s what the Framers of our great republic intended. They wanted the states to be the places that came up with innovation and competition. And I’ll tell you what, if Massachusetts gets it wrong and Florida gets it right, people will move to Florida, and businesses will move to Florida, and vice versa. There are just major distinctions between what’s happening in Washington and what I hope states will do. Like I said, what I’m not in favor of is what Barack Obama has done, which is to raise taxes and add to the federal deficit in exchange of taking a step toward a single-payer system in America.”

Most importantly, Romney’s plan has slowed rising health care costs in MA, despite flawed studies claiming otherwise.

Klein cites a number of quotes from President Obama regarding his own health care plan, comparing them to selected statements from Romney, made during the debate. For our purposes, Obama’s statements are not relevant. Whether or not Obama is being truthful about his own plan has no bearing on the truth of Romney’s statements.

Rather than admitting that Romney’s 30 second debate answers are not intended for a hyper-technical audience the way his book is, Klein claims Romney is “consistently making a series of blatant lies.” That is a serious accusation, so let’s look at the first of Romney’s statements which Klein is referring to (from the official debate transcript):

ROMNEY: Let me tell you this about our system in Massachusetts: 92 percent of our people were insured before we put our plan in place. Nothing’s changed for them. The system is the same. They have private market-based insurance.

Admittedly, the second half of Mitt’s statement is not technically accurate unless taken in the context of the first sentence. Romney wasn’t saying their lives haven’t changed in any way at all, but was addressing the primary concern people have expressed to him, which is the mandate to own insurance. Mitt appears to be minimizing that particular concern by explaining that since most people in MA already had insurance, the new law was only telling them to do something they were already doing.

But Klein doesn’t see it that way:

Neither bill literally says that people have to drop their coverage, but both Obamacare … and Romneycare … effectively make people lose their current coverage. For one thing, both mandate that individuals purchase insurance, and once the government does that, it has to define what qualifies as “insurance.” Obamacare employs the phrase “minimum essential coverage,” where as in Romneycare, it’s called “minimum creditable coverage” (see Chapter 111M, section 1). In both cases, anybody who does not have a qualified insurance policy, therefore, has to obtain one that meets the government-imposed standards, or pay a fine.

The first fact to defeat Klein’s argument is that the coverage mandates are on insurance companies, not on policy holders. So his claim that people lost their coverage and had to switch is untrue.

The second problem with Klein’s argument is that he complains about “minimum essential coverage,” however states routinely “define what qualifies as ‘insurance.'” States regulate insurance just like they regulate other companies. Texas, for example, has mandated benefits for insurance coverage, which it applied universally as recently as 2004, at which point the state implemented “consumer choice plans” which do not contain all of the state mandated benefits but must be individually approved by the state. Regulations like “minimum essential coverage” were nothing new for MA. As Romney accurately said, “the system is the same.” Regulatory changes are inherent in that system.

Perhaps Klein is thinking of how the MA legislature expanded regulations further by mandating that “the division shall include within its covered services for adults all federally optional services that were included in its state plan or demonstration program in effect on January 1, 2002.” Romney vetoed this in the bill but the legislature overrode the veto. In his book, Romney explains, “I would reinstitute my vetoes of the legislature’s additions. Among these, one of the most significant is my conviction that the state should not mandate which benefits must be included in health insurance policies: Consumers should be free to choose which benefits they want” (PB, p. 194).

It’s hard to argue that someone supported something they vetoed. But Klein tries anyway, and in the process tips his hand about his lack of objectivity:

In the past, Romney’s tried to tout the fact that he vetoed some of the benefit mandates but was overridden by the legislature. That’s a disingenuous argument, because he spent years crafting the bill, signed it with a smiling Ted Kennedy at his side, touted it publicly, and issued symbolic vetoes knowing that they would be overridden, just to give him some conservative cover. This argument would be the equivalent of a Republican Senator having worked with Democrats for a year to pass Obamacare, voting it out of committee, giving it the 60 vote threshold it needed to break a filibuster, and then voting against final passage and trying to use that final meaningless vote to make a case to primary voters.

Contrary to Klein’s claims, the legislature in MA continued making changes to the bill throughout the entire process. His U.S. Senate analogy fails because Romney always opposed the provisions he vetoed and never did anything comparable to voting them out of a Senate committee. It would be more accurate to say the Senate sent the provisions in the first place knowing Governor Romney would not be able to stop them from overriding his vetoes (although in the case of two of the vetoes, the legislature was not able to garner enough votes to override).

Klein continues his analysis:

“Furthermore, both plans create incentives for businesses to drop employer-based private insurance and dump workers on the government exchanges. We’ve seen rumblings of this as Obamacare moves closer to implementation, and last year the Boston Globe reported the following news: ‘The relentlessly rising cost of health insurance is prompting some small Massachusetts companies to drop coverage for their workers and encourage them to sign up for state-subsidized care instead, a trend that, some analysts say, could eventually weigh heavily on the state’s already-stressed budget.’

“So, Romney’s claim in last night’s debate is just as dishonest as when Obama made the same claim to the American people two years ago.”

Romney never denied that our country is in an economic crisis. Small businesses are struggling and cutting wages and benefits. But the facts show that Romney’s health care plan has lowered the rate of cost increases.

And most importantly, Klein again neglects to crack open Romney’s book:

“When the reform was passed … we required everyone who received subsidized insurance to pay a fair share of their premiums–the new liberal administration decided that some people should get their insurance for nothing. Imagine the additional cost to the state of such a decision.” Romney further noted, “elections have consequences.” (PB, p. 194)

Now let’s look at Klein’s next example in the alleged “series of blatant lies”:

“ROMNEY: We had 8 percent of our people that weren’t insured. And so what we did is we said let’s find a way to get them insurance, again, market-based private insurance. We didn’t come up with some new government insurance plan.”

Indeed, the Massachusetts Connector is not an insurance plan. It just helps people find private insurance companies, and when necessary diverts medicaid funds for that purpose. Ronald Reagan proposed a plan to do something similar, with Medicare:

“The plan expands opportunities for Medicare beneficiaries to use their benefits to enroll in private health plans as an alternative to traditional Medicare coverage”

– Ronald Wilson Reagan, February 28, 1983, transmitting to Congress his Health Insurance Reform program

Now that we’ve heard from Reagan, let’s hear from Klein:

“It’s not clear if by “new government insurance plan,” Romney meant a “public option,” but either way, that’s moot, because the idea wasn’t a part of the final version of the national health care bill that Obama signed, either. Yet what both plans do have in common is a government-run health care exchange, in which individuals use government subsidies to purchase health insurance that meets requirements set by government-appointed officials.”

As we have already discussed, every state government sets requirements for private health insurance. If Klein is claiming that these constitute a “new government insurance plan,” he would have to apply that to the other states as well. Or perhaps he is claiming that medicaid is the “new government insurance plan,” but Romney didn’t create medicaid. It’s been around for a long time.

Now for the last of the alleged “blatant lies” cited by Klein:

“ROMNEY: Our plan in Massachusetts has some good parts, some bad parts, some things I’d change, some things I like about it. It’s different than Obamacare.”

Klein’s claim:

“Romney says there are some ‘bad parts,’ but won’t specify what they are.”

No. Klein just made that up. Klein is making the same mistake as our friends at RedState. And clearly Klein did not feel the need to do any real research before writing his attack. In his book, No Apology (PB), Romney explains some aspects which he once supported but no longer does, and has consistently opposed many aspects which were foisted upon the health care plan against his desires.

If Klein would actually learn more about Romney, he might like him.

Rick Perry lobbed with racist rock smear

Texas Governor Rick Perry has plenty of vulnerabilities that I dont know why whomever dug this dumb attack up on him did, but it’s stupidly unnecessary.

According to the Washington Post, Perry and his father held leases on a property in West Texas that was once called “N*****head.” The camp was called by that name for years before Perry and his father partook in the lease. A stone bearing this word stood at the entrance to the property, but the word was later painted over, and the rock was overturned so the offensive word would not be seen, the Post reported.

The Perry campaign contested the claims made by the Washington Post, saying the family never owned the property that bore the derogatory name.

“A number of claims made in the story are incorrect, inconsistent, and anonymous, including the implication that Rick Perry brought groups to the lease when the word on the rock was still visible. The one consistent fact in the story is that the word on a rock was painted over and obscured many years ago,” Perry communications director Ray Sullivan said in a statement.

Lets assume the charge is true: Oh no… He once leased a property with a bad word painted on a rock that was later painted over. He didn’t make up the name or paint the rock but he leased the property, so… he… er…. idk what.

I don’t even want Rick Perry to win the Republican primary, let alone win the Presidency against Obama, but this is a stupid cheap shot. I wouldnt care if there was video of him giving an hour long speech on racial inferiority from that time (the 80s) cuz, um – hello? – he’s got 20 years of a record being in elected politics. judge that record. Anything racist, hateful, insensitive or bigoted in there? no? then STFU unless there is a personal-life instance that someone wants to come forward with that is a jarring example of something bigoted or cruel. otherwise who gives a floop about a racial slur painted on a rock 25 years ago? Especially when no one befucsides Sean Hannity seemed to give a shit that Obama’s pastor said the same racial slur multiple times during church sermons.

While we’re at it: I also don’t give a shit that Herman Cain didn’t know what “the right of return” was and I don’t care that Barack Obama didn’t know how to pronounce “corman”. These are 1-second “lulz and move on” flubs that dont matter.

UPDATE: It was brought to my attention by a Mitt Romney supporter that Rick Perry would assuredly be making a big deal about this if it were Mitt who was the target of this story. Given Perry’s attacks on Mitt, this is undoubtably true. If the tables were turned, perry absolutely would be all serious-face “this is unacceptable” grandstandy about it so in that regard, yes, it’s schadenfreudey to point out.

His campaign would be photoshopping an image of Mitt painting the N word on it, like how they spliced the audio to make it look as though Mitt was supporting Race to the Top.

definitely. although i dont think the something it says is that he’s dishonest but that he’s just too green as a candidate. he’s probably heard accusations that its unfair and just hasnt looked into it cuz he’s too busy having the next unfair attack ad made. Mitt had a little of this going on in 07 where he made some – not false or edited attacks like this – but kindov weak attacks made and then never responded to the accusations that they were deceptive or didnt tell the whole truth. thats no bueno. he learned and hopefully Perry will too after he loses this election.

VIDEO: Mitt Romney on Huckabee

Huckabee’s exclusive interview with the GOP presidential frontrunner might also make you want to take this review course: A Brief History of Why Huckabee and Romney Don’t Like Each Other – although I think it’s more accurate to say that Huckabee holds more of the fued. While Romney has defended Huckabee and spoke kindly of him since the 2007 primary campaign, Huckabee continued to do the opposite of Romney:

Long after the campaign ended with niether of the two winning the nomination, Huckabee dredged up old wounds in a November 2008 book. He wrote that he felt “total disrespect” when Romney didn’t call him after he won the Iowa caucuses and characterized Mitt as being “anything but conservative until he changed the light bulbs in his chandelier in time to run for president.” He then panned Romney’s economic shtick by writing why don’t you let voters “eat stocks.”

Would Mitt Romney Be a Pro-Life President?

Mitt Romney on Obamacare vs. Romneycare

What Separates Romney from the Rest of the Pack?

Beacon Hill Study on Romneycare Yields Misleading Results

The first problem with the Beacon Hill study/attack on Romneycare it that it is limited to determining the impact of health care cost increases on the surrounding economy. It is not designed to determine what caused the increase in health care costs to begin with. The study, in other words, had no basis for concluding anything about Romneycare.

But it gets worse. The study makes this assumption because it defers to an earlier study which, in perhaps a Freudian slip, states at one point: “We employed the same mythology.” And, indeed, there is “mythology” in their methodology. Their trend numbers, which they use in comparing health costs under Romneycare with costs before Romneycare, are faulty. For instance, in Table 11 their “trend” numbers claim that costs in 2006 were expected to decline from 2005, but this is clearly a false trend since costs had increased every year since 1998.

They then subtract their false trend numbers from the actual cost increase, creating the impression that costs rose at a faster rate. The bogus numbers compound each year, as the false trend numbers get further off course. We can see this play out in each of their tables. Consider table 12, insurance premiums for an average single plan. From 2000 to 2005, costs increased by $1500; meanwhile, from 2004 to 2009, costs only increased by $1100. That’s a downward trend. Yet the study claims that the premium rate in 2009 was $215 higher than the trend.

This disqualifies both studies. The first study was based on the difference between actual numbers and false trend numbers. The second study is based on the first study.

Even with the flaws in Romneycare, the costly provisions added by the legislature and new governor, it has slowed the rate of many health care cost increases in Massachusetts – despite the aging population of baby boomers (eg. hip and knee replacements are up dramatically, as well as MRI/CT scans, and mobility scooters). In all, it is working. Think how effective it would be if Romney had been able to do it his way. As he said, “There is no question in my mind that our program could be significantly improved if it were managed by a conservative administration.”

Using the raw data contained in their own tables, let’s look at how costs have slowed. Keep in mind that Romneycare went into effect in 2007. To measure it’s effectiveness we start with the previous year, 2006, so as to contrast the status prior to the law taking effect with the most current status reflected in available numbers.

Table 9: State medicaid spending increased by $1.4 billion from 2003 through 2006, and by $1.5 billion from 2006 through 2009. Again, the slight increase is attributable to the aging population.

Table 10: Medicare Advantage monthly rate increased by $166 from 2002 through 2006, and by only $139 from 2006 through 2010.

Table 11: Medicare Personal Health Care expenditures increased by 1.4 billion from 2003 through 2006, and by only 1.3 billion from 2006 through 2009.

Table 12: Average Insurance Premium (Single) increased by $952 from 2003 through 2006, and by only $820 from 2006 through 2009.

Table 13: Average Insurance Premium (Family) increased by $2423 from 2003 through 2006, and by $2433 frp, 2006 through 2009. Only ten dollar difference between cost increases.

As far as comparing MA with other states, MA had the highest costs before Romneycare. They are higher now, they were higher then. However, Rhode Island and New Jersey are right behind MA. The obvious correllation here is that RI, NJ and MA are by far the three most densely populated states in the nation. When you receive an MRI scan, the hospital charge is primarily for their investment in purchasing the scanner in the first place, not the cost of the actual scan. Likewise, additional costs accrue in densely populated states. Land costs more, so hospitals cost more. Construction is more crowded, cumbersome and costly. The initial expenditure is higher, and so then are the costs to recoup that expenditure.

Massachusetts has both the second highest personal income per capita, and personal disposable income per capita, behind only Connecticut. Disposable income influences the health care decisions people make, such as how often to visit their doctor and to seek care at a hospital. This affects cost.