Ousted in Primaries = Write In campaign

Parker V 0 Comments

Neil Cavuto introduced a segment on Fox News with a colorfully choiced clip to introduce his interview with Alaska Republican Senate Nominee Joe Miller. Viewers might have thought they were watching a commercial, but it was actually a cold-open to the Fox News show Your World with Neil Cavuto. Watch:

HotAir on the possibility of Castle starting a write-in campaign:

Castle’s team won’t confirm that they’re polling, but why wouldn’t they do it? Surely his name recognition’s high enough in the state that they’d want to know if he has a shot to win. Here’s the irony: If you think O’Donnell’s numbers against Coons are already so grim that she stands no real chance of winning — and most O’D supporters do not think that — then it’s a no-brainer that you should want Castle in the race. Worst-case scenario is that he and O’Donnell split Republicans and Coons manages to hold onto enough Democrats to squeak to victory, but then a Coons victory is how things look at the moment anyway. Bad-case scenario is that Castle manages to pull enough Dems from Coons and Republicans from O’Donnell to win the seat himself, in which case the GOP is a step closer to a Senate majority. Best-case scenario, obviously, is that Castle and Coons split the Dems and O’Donnell squeaks through on the strength of conservative supporter. If, however, you think O’D can still beat Coons head-to-head — and especially if you’re a DeMint-ian “true conservative” who regards centrist Republicans as even worse for conservatism than Democratic victories — then you should probably want Castle to stay out. “Anyone but the RINO,” no?

Another grand irony here? Castle’s hard feelings towards O’Donnell and the base may be so hard that if he polls this and the numbers show that he’ll hurt Coons more than he’ll hurt her, maybe he’ll decide not to run just to spite her. RINO revenge?

Generic ballots underestimating Democrats?

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The NY Times shows that voters should beware of polls that show Republicans way above Democrats because when the matchup is given by name, the individual Democrats do much better…

Republicans did better on the first set of questions, which asked voters whether in general they would prefer to see a Democrat or a Republican elected in the district. On average, over the 31 districts, Republicans led on this question by 6 points: 39 to 33.

When the candidates were named, however, the Democrats’ gap was lessened. They trailed by an average margin of 2 points, 43 to 45. (Results from the individual districts that American Action Forum tested are shown below.) That might imply that the generic ballot overestimates Republicans’ standing by about 4 points, at least in swing districts.