Ridge won’t run

Ridge took himself out of the running today, however: Tom Ridge, the first U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Pennsylvania, issued the following statement today on his decision not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate in his home state of Pennsylvania.

“After careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate.

“I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.[“]

Toomey recently raised $500,000 in 2 1/2 weeks. Perhaps Ridge knows he couldn’t raise $500,00 in 2 1/2 weeks or possibly even successfully win in a Republican primary in PA. So he gets out. says Ed Morrisey of this:

According to some, with Ridge goes the GOP’s hope of wresting the seat back from Specter and his new colleagues in the Democratic Party.  Pennsylvania hasn’t been kind to conservatives, and some point to Rick Santorum’s loss to Robert Casey, Jr. in 2006 as evidence that a conservative can’t win in the Keystone State.  That’s what prompted the GOP to start looking for primary challengers to Toomey rather than start building support for him in a general election.  Now, they don’t have anyone of sufficient stature to push into the primary.

“jon1979” observes that: Getting a conservative Republican elected in Pennsylvania requires the same parameters that, say, electing a Republican mayor period in New York (that is, an actual Republican, not Michael Bloomberg). That is, Democrats have to:

A.) Hold all major state offices;

B.) Hold both the White House and Congess;

C.) Screw things up before the mid-term election.

That’s how Santorum was elected in 1994 — the Democrats tried to paint him as out of the mainstream, but voters were unhappy with the direction of both the state and the nation, and there were no Republicans in positions of power to blame.

That’s why it’s too early to write Toomey off, no matter what the current poll numbers show. Pennsylvania’s governor is a Democrat; thanks to Arlen, both their senators are now Democrats, Obama’s a Democrat and both Houses of Congress are controlled by Democrats. If Pennsylvania voters are unhappy with the way things are going 18 months from now and want change, based on what happened in 1994, it’s pretty easy to figure out what they’re going to do.

Obama lowers expectations ahead of must-win primary for Clinton

So says Canada.com:

In particular, her campaign maintains Obama’s difficulties wooing lower middle class voters in the U.S. heartland – the culturally conservative working class Americans known in the past as ‘Reagan Democrats’ – bodes ills for a November showdown against Republican Senator John McCain.

“In order for a Democrat to win, he or she has to be able to do well with those kinds of non-college-educated voters who feel very comfortable moving from one side to the other,” said Phil Singer, Clinton’s communications director.

But while Obama seemingly faces long odds in Pennsylvania, Clinton still has the more difficult path to the nomination, even if she wins today.

Obama has so far accumulated an estimated 1,648 of the 2,024 delegates needed to become the Democratic nominee, compared to 1,508 for Clinton.

An Associated Press analysis of the Democratic race found Obama will likely be within 100 ‘pledged’ delegates of clinching the nomination after the final Democratic primaries on June 3. There are 158 pledged delegates up for grabs in Pennsylvania.

Clinton still narrowly leads Obama in endorsements from Democratic superdelegates, an estimated 256 to 233. But there’s been little evidence the remaining undecided voters in this elite group of lawmakers and party officials have been swayed by the questions of Obama’s electability and character.

Despite the recent controversies engulfing Obama’s campaign – including the tempest over racist remarks by his former pastor – the Illinois senator has won the endorsement of 80 superdelegates since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, compared to just five who have declared support for Clinton.

Clinton aide Geoff Garin dismissed as “ridiculous” a reporter’s suggestion Monday that the former first lady must win by at least 20 points to maintain credibility in the race.

But by one measure – the Democratic popular vote – Clinton needs that sort of record margin in Pennsylvania and almost every other remaining primary to close the gap on Obama. She currently trails Obama by 717,000 votes throughout the nominating contests held since January.

“Pennsylvania is absolutely essential for Hillary,” says Miller.